Spread: Bills (-7.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (43%) · Vikings at 68¢ · $647 held · ends Nov 10

Bills33¢Vikings67¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vikings

Consensus Traders

Vikings 43%

Total Value

$647.22

Combined PnL

-$1.52

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 67.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bills33%

Vikings68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings3 traders

Total Value$519.63

Total Shares770

Combined PnL-$3.63

Bills4 traders

Total Value$127.59

Total Shares393

Combined PnL+$2.11

Vikings — 43%Bills — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Vikingsavg 68¢	$491.64	$488.03	-$3.61	—
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Billsavg 32¢	$70.27	$71.37	+$1.1	—
BR BreakTheBankCTR<$100	Billsavg 32¢	$33.92	$34.45	+$0.53	—
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Billsavg 32¢	$16.64	$16.9	+$0.26	—
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Vikingsavg 68¢	$17	$16.88	-$0.13	—
38 38791873984189<$100	Vikingsavg 67¢	$14.62	$14.73	+$0.11	—
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Billsavg 31¢	$4.65	$4.87	+$0.22	—

nigiri99

Vikings

Invested

$491.64

Value

$488.03

PnL

-$3.61

Record

—

NM-PCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$70.27

Value

$71.37

PnL

+$1.1

Record

—

BreakTheBankCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$33.92

Value

$34.45

PnL

+$0.53

Record

—

GC-PCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$16.64

Value

$16.9

PnL

+$0.26

Record

—

HomeRunHazard<$100

Vikings

Invested

$17

Value

$16.88

PnL

-$0.13

Record

—

38791873984189<$100

Vikings

Invested

$14.62

Value

$14.73

PnL

+$0.11

Record

—

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.87

PnL

+$0.22

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vikings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.