Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bills, while the market favors Vikings (56%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Bills (-4.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (33%) · Bills at 45¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Bills
6
Bills 33%
$9.9K
$88.76
43.7¢ → 44.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBills at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Billsavg 44¢ | $5.2K | $5.3K | +$59.24 | — |
TA takeormakeCTR | Billsavg 43¢ | $2.6K | $2.5K | -$29.91 | — |
38 38791873984189 | Vikingsavg 56¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$45.1 | — |
 VeryLucky888 | Vikingsavg 55¢ | $310.86 | $324.99 | +$14.13 | — |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Vikingsavg 55¢ | $24.04 | $24.26 | +$0.22 | — |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Vikingsavg 55.6¢ | $14.45 | $14.43 | -$0.02 | — |
Invested
$5,213.41
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$59.24
Record
—
Invested
$2,572.55
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$29.91
Record
—
Invested
$1,683.92
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$45.1
Record
—
VeryLucky888Invested
$310.86
Value
$324.99
PnL
+$14.13
Record
—
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$24.04
Value
$24.26
PnL
+$0.22
Record
—
Invested
$14.45
Value
$14.43
PnL
-$0.02
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.