Spread: Bills (-3.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (57%) · Vikings at 55¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 10

Bills46¢Vikings54¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vikings

Consensus Traders

Vikings 57%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$142.66

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 54.5¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bills46%

Vikings55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,413

Combined PnL+$137.86

Bills3 traders

Total Value$78.51

Total Shares168

Combined PnL+$4.79

Vikings — 57%Bills — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bills) and the top 1000 (6 on Vikings) disagree here.

whaleVikings 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpVikings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBills 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Vikingsavg 52.6¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$47.75	54% 18469-15536 (34005)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardARB<$100	Billsavg 50.7¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$44.62	53% 667-585 (1252)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 50.7¢	$906.39	$803.7	-$80.37
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 50.7¢	$402.83	$428.98	+$35.75
PL pltrkr111	Vikingsavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$90	55% 789-656 (1445)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Billsavg 46¢	$764.34	$769.51	+$13.16	51% 3847-3765 (7612)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 46¢	$481.83	$471.24	-$5.35
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 51.1¢	$282.51	$298.26	+$18.51
NM NM-PARB<$100	Billsavg 50¢	$364.9	$353.4	-$11.5	64% 10175-5710 (15885)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 50¢	$250	$227.5	-$20
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 50.3¢	$116.24	$125.9	+$8.5
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Billsavg 45.3¢	$39.22	$39.53	+$0.32	58% 47459-34244 (81703)
38 38791873984189CTR	Billsavg 49¢	$373.08	$36.73	+$4.65	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
PA Pan9X<$100	Vikingsavg 51.3¢	$11.51	$11.52	+$0.06	54% 10426-8742 (19168)
GC GC-P<$100	Vikingsavg 54¢	$5.4	$5.4	+$0.05	64% 10173-5762 (15935)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Billsavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.25	-$0.18	50% 8428-8461 (16889)

HomeRunHazard

Vikings

Invested

$1,798.46

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$47.75

Record

54%

18469-15536 (34005)

monkeymashingkeyboardARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$1,309.22

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$44.62

Record

53%

667-585 (1252)

Both legs:

Bills$906.3950.7¢-$80.37

Vikings$402.8350.7¢+$35.75

pltrkr111

Vikings

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$90

Record

55%

789-656 (1445)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$764.34

Value

$769.51

PnL

+$13.16

Record

51%

3847-3765 (7612)

Both legs:

Bills$481.8346¢-$5.35

Vikings$282.5151.1¢+$18.51

NM-PARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$364.9

Value

$353.4

PnL

-$11.5

Record

64%

10175-5710 (15885)

Both legs:

Bills$25050¢-$20

Vikings$116.2450.3¢+$8.5

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$39.22

Value

$39.53

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

47459-34244 (81703)

38791873984189CTR

Bills

Invested

$373.08

Value

$36.73

PnL

+$4.65

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

Pan9X<$100

Vikings

Invested

$11.51

Value

$11.52

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

10426-8742 (19168)

GC-P<$100

Vikings

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

64%

10173-5762 (15935)

RLWGCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

8428-8461 (16889)

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bills) and the top 1000 (6 on Vikings) disagree here.

whaleVikings 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpVikings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBills 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vikings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.