Spread: Bills (-2.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (50%) · Bills at 56¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 10

Bills56¢Vikings44¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.0K

Combined PnL

-$4.82

Smart Money Entry

58.5¢ → 56.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills56%

Vikings44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills4 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares11,975

Combined PnL-$340.83

Vikings4 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares12,993

Combined PnL+$336.01

Bills — 50%Vikings — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

71h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bills) and the top 1000 (7 on Vikings) disagree here.

whaleVikings 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrBills 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Vikings 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Billsavg 59¢	$5.9K	$5.6K	-$350.61	54% 689-598 (1287)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Vikingsavg 41.1¢	$4.2K	$4.6K	+$349.35	54% 20066-16931 (36997)
OM omnibus-076daa	Billsavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$9.68	50% 23521-23532 (47053)
38 38791873984189CTR	Vikingsavg 44¢	$83.66	$964.31	-$11.02	48% 70392-76030 (146422)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Vikingsavg 43.6¢	$513.06	$513.59	+$0.53	58% 22615-16691 (39306)
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 43.6¢	$371.79	$371.06	-$0.73
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 56¢	$141.27	$142.53	+$1.26
GC GC-PCTR	Vikingsavg 44¢	$252.48	$250.27	-$2.21	57% 22524-16688 (39212)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 44¢	$9.96	$9.92	-$0.1	52% 27371-24877 (52248)
VeryLucky888<$100	Billsavg 54¢	$7.46	$7.71	+$0.25	59% 52520-37212 (89732)
HE Herdonia<$100	Billsavg 57¢	$5.7	$5.55	-$0.15	50% 4170-4244 (8414)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Bills

Invested

$5,910.34

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$350.61

Record

54%

689-598 (1287)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Vikings

Invested

$4,219.96

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$349.35

Record

54%

20066-16931 (36997)

omnibus-076daa

Bills

Invested

$1,084.13

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$9.68

Record

50%

23521-23532 (47053)

38791873984189CTR

Vikings

Invested

$83.66

Value

$964.31

PnL

-$11.02

Record

48%

70392-76030 (146422)

NM-PARB<$100

Vikings

Invested

$513.06

Value

$513.59

PnL

+$0.53

Record

58%

22615-16691 (39306)

Both legs:

Vikings$371.7943.6¢-$0.73

Bills$141.2756¢+$1.26

GC-PCTR

Vikings

Invested

$252.48

Value

$250.27

PnL

-$2.21

Record

57%

22524-16688 (39212)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$9.96

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

27371-24877 (52248)

VeryLucky888<$100

Bills

Invested

$7.46

Value

$7.71

PnL

+$0.25

Record

59%

52520-37212 (89732)

Herdonia<$100

Bills

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.55

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

4170-4244 (8414)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bills

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

71h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bills) and the top 1000 (7 on Vikings) disagree here.

whaleVikings 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrBills 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Vikings 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.