Spread: Bills (-1.5)
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (14%) · Bills at 61¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Bills
7
Bills 14%
$21.7K
$7.57
Research grade
NeutralBills at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-38 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
29% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBank | Billsavg 60¢ | $13.3K | $13.4K | +$114.99 | 40% 333-506 (839) |
PR primmCTR | Vikingsavg 40¢ | $8.0K | $7.9K | -$100 | 16% 18-93 (111) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Vikingsavg 39.8¢ | $177.62 | $176.39 | -$1.24 | 49% 383-404 (787) |
LI LimousinCTR | Vikingsavg 41¢ | $146.15 | $140.8 | -$5.35 | 24% 90-282 (372) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Vikingsavg 40¢ | $32.8 | $32.39 | -$0.41 | 43% 28-37 (65) |
QI qidao001CTR<$100 | Vikingsavg 40¢ | $15.68 | $15.48 | -$0.2 | 75% 18-6 (24) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Vikingsavg 41¢ | $15 | $5.93 | -$0.23 | 48% 173-188 (361) |
Invested
$13,308.25
Value
$13.4K
PnL
+$114.99
Record
40%
333-506 (839)
Invested
$8,000
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$100
Record
16%
18-93 (111)
Invested
$177.62
Value
$176.39
PnL
-$1.24
Record
49%
383-404 (787)
Invested
$146.15
Value
$140.8
PnL
-$5.35
Record
24%
90-282 (372)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$32.8
Value
$32.39
PnL
-$0.41
Record
43%
28-37 (65)
Invested
$15.68
Value
$15.48
PnL
-$0.2
Record
75%
18-6 (24)
Invested
$15
Value
$5.93
PnL
-$0.23
Record
48%
173-188 (361)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.