Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 64.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 98¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 1

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$13.8K

Combined PnL

$2.8K

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 98.3¢

+38% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares15,214

Combined PnL+$2.9K

Over2 traders

Total Value$59.95

Total Shares300

Combined PnL-$41.69

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 70.8¢	$6.8K	$9.2K	+$2.3K	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
PR primm	Underavg 71¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$309.57	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
Nooserac	Underavg 71.1¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$175.96	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 73.6¢	$138.11	$156.25	+$18.14	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$91.8	$51	-$40.8	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
DR Dreamwire<$100	Underavg 99.4¢	$49.7	$48.78	-$0.93	83% 2683-538 (3221)
IC ic4creamCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$9.84	$8.95	-$0.89	59% 2660-1871 (4531)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 78¢	$5.85	$6	+$0.15	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

RN1

Under

Invested

$6,801.98

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

primm

Under

Invested

$2,454.18

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$309.57

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

Nooserac

Under

Invested

$1,399.23

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$175.96

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$138.11

Value

$156.25

PnL

+$18.14

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$91.8

Value

$51

PnL

-$40.8

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

Dreamwire<$100

Under

Invested

$49.7

Value

$48.78

PnL

-$0.93

Record

83%

2683-538 (3221)

ic4creamCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.84

Value

$8.95

PnL

-$0.89

Record

59%

2660-1871 (4531)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$5.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.