Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 56.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 54¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
$3.8K
-$5.92
55.4¢ → 53.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 56¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$15.99 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$14.31 | 62% 4201-2576 (6777) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 54¢ | $636.03 | $629.62 | -$6.4 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Underavg 54¢ | $113.32 | $112.37 | -$0.95 | 54% 4943-4171 (9114) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $24.51 | $24.29 | -$0.22 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $21.66 | $21.85 | +$0.19 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $19.8 | $19.58 | -$0.23 | 50% 7125-7171 (14296) |
Invested
$1,612.47
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$15.99
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$1,383.69
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$14.31
Record
62%
4201-2576 (6777)
0xheavy888Invested
$636.03
Value
$629.62
PnL
-$6.4
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
Invested
$113.32
Value
$112.37
PnL
-$0.95
Record
54%
4943-4171 (9114)
Invested
$24.51
Value
$24.29
PnL
-$0.22
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$21.66
Value
$21.85
PnL
+$0.19
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.58
PnL
-$0.23
Record
50%
7125-7171 (14296)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.