Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 52.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 55¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1

Over55¢Under45¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$126.63

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 55¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,904

Combined PnL+$124.26

Under3 traders

Total Value$369.35

Total Shares879

Combined PnL+$2.37

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Overavg 56¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$120	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
RN1	Overavg 55¢	$284.32	$299.83	+$15.51	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 42¢	$257.46	$257.46	+$0	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
NA NatoAlfista	Overavg 56¢	$146.02	$148.63	+$2.61	50% 3948-3932 (7880)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 41¢	$102.5	$105	+$2.5	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 55.7¢	$74.44	$76.43	+$1.99	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.7¢	$47.56	$49.55	+$1.99
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$26.88	$26.88	+$0
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 69¢	$86.94	$73.08	-$13.86	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 43.8¢	$13.77	$6.89	-$0.13	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$3,487.68

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$120

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

RN1

Over

Invested

$284.32

Value

$299.83

PnL

+$15.51

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$257.46

Value

$257.46

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

NatoAlfista

Over

Invested

$146.02

Value

$148.63

PnL

+$2.61

Record

50%

3948-3932 (7880)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$102.5

Value

$105

PnL

+$2.5

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$74.44

Value

$76.43

PnL

+$1.99

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

Both legs:

Over$47.5655.7¢+$1.99

Under$26.8842¢+$0

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$86.94

Value

$73.08

PnL

-$13.86

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.77

Value

$6.89

PnL

-$0.13

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.