Spread: Bills (-9.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (60%) · Bills at 99¢ · $25K held · ended Nov 1

Bills99¢Ravens1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 60%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.2K

Combined PnL

-$401.38

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 98.5¢

+85% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bills99%

Ravens2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills6 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares15,257

Combined PnL-$117.82

Ravens4 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares9,003

Combined PnL-$283.55

Bills — 60%Ravens — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Billsavg 50¢	$6.5K	$6.6K	+$90.62	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$196.94
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 47.1¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$287.56
ST stackingsats	Billsavg 56¢	$4.5K	$4.4K	-$40	48% 335-370 (705)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Billsavg 50.7¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$100.07	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 50.7¢	$2.1K	$2.6K	+$415.2
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 47.3¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$315.13
TKD44	Billsavg 50¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$31.06	48% 156-166 (322)
NooseracCTR	Ravensavg 63¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$143.84	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Ravensavg 49.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$37	46% 458-531 (989)
PR primmARB<$100	Billsavg 46¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$4.56	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 46¢	$1,000	$989.13	-$10.87
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 53.5¢	$335.11	$341.41	+$6.31
TA takeormakeCTR	Ravensavg 54¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$76.57	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Ravensavg 46.2¢	$275.43	$268.39	-$7.04	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 46.2¢	$196	$180.18	-$15.82
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 51.8¢	$79.43	$88.21	+$8.78
TO topdogbigboi	Billsavg 49.7¢	$210.87	$247.74	+$36.87	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Ravensavg 57¢	$228.59	$202.45	-$26.14	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Billsavg 57¢	$296.4	$150.8	-$145.6	46% 367-427 (794)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Billsavg 29¢	$40.31	$40.31	-$0	50% 7127-7172 (14299)
GH ghorrock<$100	Billsavg 51¢	$3.06	$2.91	-$0.15	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

RN1ARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$6,500.54

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$90.62

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Both legs:

Bills$3,983.6450¢-$196.94

Ravens$2,516.947.1¢+$287.56

stackingsats

Bills

Invested

$4,479.99

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$40

Record

48%

335-370 (705)

Anon455ARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$4,047.42

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$100.07

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

Both legs:

Bills$2,137.1150.7¢+$415.2

Ravens$1,910.3147.3¢-$315.13

TKD44

Bills

Invested

$3,105.93

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$31.06

Record

48%

156-166 (322)

NooseracCTR

Ravens

Invested

$2,265.48

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$143.84

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Ravens

Invested

$1,395

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$37

Record

46%

458-531 (989)

primmARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$1,335.11

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$4.56

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

Both legs:

Bills$1,00046¢-$10.87

Ravens$335.1153.5¢+$6.31

takeormakeCTR

Ravens

Invested

$1,199.93

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$76.57

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Ravens

Invested

$275.43

Value

$268.39

PnL

-$7.04

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Ravens$19646.2¢-$15.82

Bills$79.4351.8¢+$8.78

topdogbigboi

Bills

Invested

$210.87

Value

$247.74

PnL

+$36.87

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

justaluckydudeCTR

Ravens

Invested

$228.59

Value

$202.45

PnL

-$26.14

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Bills

Invested

$296.4

Value

$150.8

PnL

-$145.6

Record

46%

367-427 (794)

Forecastication2<$100

Bills

Invested

$40.31

Value

$40.31

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

7127-7172 (14299)

ghorrock<$100

Bills

Invested

$3.06

Value

$2.91

PnL

-$0.15

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.