Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ravens, while the market favors Bills (100%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bills (-7.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Ravens (73%) · Ravens at 0.4¢ · $32K held · ended Nov 1

Bills>99¢Ravens<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ravens

Consensus Traders

Ravens 73%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.1K

Combined PnL

$-3.2K

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 0.4¢

-99% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidRavens at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Bills 100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bills100%

Ravens0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ravens8 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares27,924

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Bills3 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,820

Combined PnL+$157.77

Ravens — 73%Bills — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Ravensavg 67¢	$9.0K	$7.8K	$-1.2K	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
PR primmARB<$100	Billsavg 55.5¢	$6.3K	$6.7K	+$374.4	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 55.5¢	$4.5K	$5.1K	+$646.01
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 42.9¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$271.61
VeryLucky888CTR	Ravensavg 67¢	$4.7K	$4.0K	-$626.38	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Ravensavg 62.3¢	$4.2K	$3.6K	-$595.16	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 53.8¢	$1.9K	$2.6K	+$624.82
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 62.3¢	$2.3K	$1.1K	$-1.2K
RN1ARB<$100	Ravensavg 35.6¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$39.6	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 56¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$376.8
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 35.6¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$337.2
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516	Billsavg 65.6¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$2.56	50% 121-120 (241)
TA takeormakeCTR	Ravensavg 51.6¢	$2.8K	$1.5K	$-1.3K	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
AM AmericaFirst1	Billsavg 59¢	$696.93	$838.68	+$141.75	62% 2198-1345 (3543)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Ravensavg 67¢	$938	$812	-$126	54% 4944-4172 (9116)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Ravensavg 67¢	$167.5	$145	-$22.5	53% 11583-10087 (21670)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Ravensavg 45.4¢	$141.82	$134.47	-$7.35	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 49¢	$53.58	$77.09	+$23.51
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 45.4¢	$88.24	$57.38	-$30.86
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Ravensavg 61.7¢	$180.43	$125.02	-$55.41	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Billsavg 55.8¢	$70.83	$89.41	+$18.59	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Ravensavg 68¢	$38.76	$33.06	-$5.7	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Ravensavg 40¢	$12	$8.59	+$1.55	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Ravens

Invested

$9,021

Value

$7.8K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

primmARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$6,296.35

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$374.4

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

Both legs:

Bills$4,468.7955.5¢+$646.01

Ravens$1,827.5542.9¢-$271.61

VeryLucky888CTR

Ravens

Invested

$4,663.07

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$626.38

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

Anon455ARB<$100

Ravens

Invested

$4,230.07

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$595.16

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

Both legs:

Bills$1,948.4253.8¢+$624.82

Ravens$2,281.6562.3¢$-1.2K

RN1ARB<$100

Ravens

Invested

$3,217.12

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$39.6

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Both legs:

Bills$1,406.7256¢+$376.8

Ravens$1,810.435.6¢-$337.2

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516

Bills

Invested

$2,957.92

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$2.56

Record

50%

121-120 (241)

takeormakeCTR

Ravens

Invested

$2,840.35

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

AmericaFirst1

Bills

Invested

$696.93

Value

$838.68

PnL

+$141.75

Record

62%

2198-1345 (3543)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Ravens

Invested

$938

Value

$812

PnL

-$126

Record

54%

4944-4172 (9116)

BoomLaLaCTR

Ravens

Invested

$167.5

Value

$145

PnL

-$22.5

Record

53%

11583-10087 (21670)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Ravens

Invested

$141.82

Value

$134.47

PnL

-$7.35

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Bills$53.5849¢+$23.51

Ravens$88.2445.4¢-$30.86

justaluckydudeCTR

Ravens

Invested

$180.43

Value

$125.02

PnL

-$55.41

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

topdogbigboi<$100

Bills

Invested

$70.83

Value

$89.41

PnL

+$18.59

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$38.76

Value

$33.06

PnL

-$5.7

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$12

Value

$8.59

PnL

+$1.55

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

AvoidRavens at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Bills 100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ravens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6707.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

6807.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.