Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ravens, while the market favors Bills (68%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bills (-6.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Ravens (73%) · Ravens at 33¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 1

Bills68¢Ravens32¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ravens

Consensus Traders

Ravens 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$605.77

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 32.5¢

-42% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralRavens at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Bills 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bills68%

Ravens33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ravens8 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares13,189

Combined PnL+$655.75

Bills3 traders

Total Value$210.6

Total Shares540

Combined PnL-$49.98

Ravens — 73%Bills — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Ravens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRavens 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrRavens 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Ravens 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Ravensavg 46.6¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$22.82	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 46.6¢	$2.2K	$2.8K	+$667.18
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 62¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	-$690
HI hi774cCTR	Ravensavg 61¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$0	51% 4818-4541 (9359)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Ravensavg 62¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$40.68	62% 4201-2576 (6777)
RN1CTR	Ravensavg 36¢	$896.4	$1.5K	+$622.5	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
PR primmCTR	Ravensavg 51¢	$391.61	$463.87	+$72.27	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Billsavg 49¢	$245	$195	-$50	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Ravensavg 60¢	$150	$152.5	+$2.5	53% 11583-10087 (21670)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Ravensavg 61.4¢	$65.73	$65.27	-$0.46	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Ravensavg 42.2¢	$72.66	$56.87	-$15.79	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Ravensavg 38¢	$25.46	$40.87	+$15.41	46% 367-427 (794)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Billsavg 38¢	$9.5	$9.75	-$0.13	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
GH ghorrock<$100	Billsavg 38¢	$5.7	$5.85	+$0.15	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

Anon455ARB<$100

Ravens

Invested

$4,025.05

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$22.82

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

Both legs:

Ravens$2,165.0546.6¢+$667.18

Bills$1,86062¢-$690

hi774cCTR

Ravens

Invested

$3,199.65

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

4818-4541 (9359)

SunlineTickerCTR

Ravens

Invested

$2,544.92

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$40.68

Record

62%

4201-2576 (6777)

RN1CTR

Ravens

Invested

$896.4

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$622.5

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

primmCTR

Ravens

Invested

$391.61

Value

$463.87

PnL

+$72.27

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Bills

Invested

$245

Value

$195

PnL

-$50

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

BoomLaLaCTR

Ravens

Invested

$150

Value

$152.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

11583-10087 (21670)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$65.73

Value

$65.27

PnL

-$0.46

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$72.66

Value

$56.87

PnL

-$15.79

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$25.46

Value

$40.87

PnL

+$15.41

Record

46%

367-427 (794)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Bills

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$0.13

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

ghorrock<$100

Bills

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

NeutralRavens at 33%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Bills 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Ravens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRavens 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrRavens 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Ravens 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ravens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.