Spread: Bills (-5.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (86%) · Bills at 99¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 1

Bills99¢Ravens1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.5K

Combined PnL

$-5.4K

Smart Money Entry

63.7¢ → 99¢

+55% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

6 of 7 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bills99%

Ravens1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills6 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares23,946

Combined PnL$-5.4K

Ravens1 trader

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares7,194

Combined PnL-$0

Bills — 86%Ravens — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Billsavg 68¢	$13.6K	$8.2K	$-5.4K	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Billsavg 67.1¢	$5.8K	$5.4K	-$413.36	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 67.1¢	$3.6K	$4.2K	+$586.64
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 40.2¢	$2.2K	$1.2K	$-1.0K
TA takeormakeCTR	Ravensavg 59¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$0	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
RN1ARB<$100	Ravensavg 48.1¢	$2.5K	$2.0K	-$493.39	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 69¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$7.92
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 48.1¢	$1.4K	$871.01	-$501.31
SU SunlineTicker	Billsavg 41¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0	62% 4201-2576 (6777)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Billsavg 68¢	$43.1	$49.43	+$6.34	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Billsavg 41¢	$41	$41	+$0	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
GH ghorrock<$100	Billsavg 70¢	$10.5	$10.42	-$0.08	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Billsavg 51¢	$4.37	$3.51	-$0.86	59% 30682-21402 (52084)

Nooserac

Bills

Invested

$13,615.57

Value

$8.2K

PnL

$-5.4K

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

Anon455ARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$5,836.92

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$413.36

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

Both legs:

Bills$3,626.9267.1¢+$586.64

Ravens$2,21040.2¢$-1.0K

takeormakeCTR

Ravens

Invested

$4,244.72

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

RN1ARB<$100

Ravens

Invested

$2,465.28

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$493.39

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Both legs:

Bills$1,092.9669¢+$7.92

Ravens$1,372.3248.1¢-$501.31

SunlineTicker

Bills

Invested

$1,531.76

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

4201-2576 (6777)

topdogbigboi<$100

Bills

Invested

$43.1

Value

$49.43

PnL

+$6.34

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

UpTheBlues<$100

Bills

Invested

$41

Value

$41

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

ghorrock<$100

Bills

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.42

PnL

-$0.08

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Bills

Invested

$4.37

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$0.86

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

6 of 7 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.