Spread: Bills (-4.5)

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (71%) · Bills at 99¢ · $39K held · ended Nov 1

Bills99¢Ravens1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.2K

Combined PnL

-$414.72

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 98.7¢

+98% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

12 of 17 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bills99%

Ravens1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ravens5 traders

Total Value$15.5K

Total Shares28,632

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Bills12 traders

Total Value$21.2K

Total Shares43,445

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Ravens — 29%Bills — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI sinasinnerCTR	Ravensavg 51¢	$12.8K	$14.1K	+$1.4K	48% 28-30 (58)
SI Siddhartha1	Billsavg 43¢	$11.6K	$11.7K	+$134.34	51% 59-57 (116)
RN1	Billsavg 71.3¢	$4.2K	$4.0K	-$270.99	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Billsavg 65.8¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$60.68	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 65.8¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$390.68
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 29¢	$870	$540	-$330
Nooserac	Billsavg 71¢	$3.4K	$2.1K	$-1.3K	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
DO DolphinBaller	Billsavg 43¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$15	47% 100-113 (213)
HE Herdonia	Billsavg 43¢	$933.31	$944.16	+$10.85	54% 3405-2950 (6355)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Ravensavg 57¢	$685	$678.99	-$6.01	57% 227-173 (400)
EN ENDBOSSLLC	Billsavg 67¢	$650.15	$422.11	-$228.04	42% 278-388 (666)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Ravensavg 31.7¢	$526.21	$365.62	-$160.59	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
TO topdogbigboi	Billsavg 57.8¢	$228.95	$330.69	+$101.73	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
PR primmCTR	Ravensavg 45¢	$327.13	$294.78	-$32.35	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
tradecraft	Billsavg 54¢	$269.99	$217.5	-$52.5	51% 6082-5802 (11884)
TA takeormake	Billsavg 53¢	$96.46	$124.67	+$28.21	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
HO HomeRunHazard	Billsavg 43¢	$103.2	$104.4	+$1.2	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Ravensavg 57¢	$27.32	$17.73	-$9.59	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
GH ghorrock<$100	Billsavg 62.2¢	$13.88	$17.41	+$3.53	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Billsavg 61¢	$4.88	$6.68	+$1.8	59% 46944-33223 (80167)

sinasinnerCTR

Ravens

Invested

$12,750

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

48%

28-30 (58)

Siddhartha1

Bills

Invested

$11,553.29

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$134.34

Record

51%

59-57 (116)

RN1

Bills

Invested

$4,249.65

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$270.99

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Anon455ARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$2,454.7

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$60.68

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

Both legs:

Bills$1,584.765.8¢+$390.68

Ravens$87029¢-$330

Nooserac

Bills

Invested

$3,424.33

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

DolphinBaller

Bills

Invested

$1,290

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$15

Record

47%

100-113 (213)

Herdonia

Bills

Invested

$933.31

Value

$944.16

PnL

+$10.85

Record

54%

3405-2950 (6355)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Ravens

Invested

$685

Value

$678.99

PnL

-$6.01

Record

57%

227-173 (400)

ENDBOSSLLC

Bills

Invested

$650.15

Value

$422.11

PnL

-$228.04

Record

42%

278-388 (666)

justaluckydudeCTR

Ravens

Invested

$526.21

Value

$365.62

PnL

-$160.59

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

topdogbigboi

Bills

Invested

$228.95

Value

$330.69

PnL

+$101.73

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

primmCTR

Ravens

Invested

$327.13

Value

$294.78

PnL

-$32.35

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

tradecraft

Bills

Invested

$269.99

Value

$217.5

PnL

-$52.5

Record

51%

6082-5802 (11884)

takeormake

Bills

Invested

$96.46

Value

$124.67

PnL

+$28.21

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

HomeRunHazard

Bills

Invested

$103.2

Value

$104.4

PnL

+$1.2

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$27.32

Value

$17.73

PnL

-$9.59

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

ghorrock<$100

Bills

Invested

$13.88

Value

$17.41

PnL

+$3.53

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

UpTheBlues<$100

Bills

Invested

$4.88

Value

$6.68

PnL

+$1.8

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

12 of 17 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.