Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ravens, while the market favors Bills (99%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bills (-2.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ravens (44%) · Ravens at 0.9¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1

Bills>99¢Ravens<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ravens

Consensus Traders

Ravens 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

40.6¢ → 0.9¢

-98% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRavens at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Bills 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bills99%

Ravens1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,805

Combined PnL+$34.76

Ravens4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares9,734

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Bills — 56%Ravens — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Billsavg 56¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$18.38	43% 561-738 (1299)
TA takeormakeCTR	Ravensavg 43¢	$2.9K	$1.4K	$-1.5K	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Ravensavg 36¢	$666.36	$805.19	+$138.82	46% 367-427 (794)
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761d	Billsavg 57¢	$589.65	$584.48	-$5.17	51% 144-139 (283)
PR primmCTR	Ravensavg 34¢	$399.84	$376.32	-$23.52	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Ravensavg 17.7¢	$124.58	$72.31	-$52.28	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
└ Ravens leg	Ravensavg 17.7¢	$96.68	$43.79	-$52.9
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 90¢	$27.9	$28.52	+$0.62
AN Anon455<$100	Billsavg 59¢	$35.47	$52.61	+$17.13	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Billsavg 66.3¢	$15.27	$19.37	+$4.1	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
GH ghorrock<$100	Billsavg 82¢	$10.45	$10.77	+$0.32	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Ravensavg 40.9¢	$26.65	$7.81	-$18.84	59% 46944-33223 (80167)

BreakTheBank

Bills

Invested

$2,058.42

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$18.38

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

takeormakeCTR

Ravens

Invested

$2,859.23

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Ravens

Invested

$666.36

Value

$805.19

PnL

+$138.82

Record

46%

367-427 (794)

0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761d

Bills

Invested

$589.65

Value

$584.48

PnL

-$5.17

Record

51%

144-139 (283)

primmCTR

Ravens

Invested

$399.84

Value

$376.32

PnL

-$23.52

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Ravens

Invested

$124.58

Value

$72.31

PnL

-$52.28

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

Both legs:

Ravens$96.6817.7¢-$52.9

Bills$27.990¢+$0.62

Anon455<$100

Bills

Invested

$35.47

Value

$52.61

PnL

+$17.13

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

topdogbigboi<$100

Bills

Invested

$15.27

Value

$19.37

PnL

+$4.1

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

ghorrock<$100

Bills

Invested

$10.45

Value

$10.77

PnL

+$0.32

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$26.65

Value

$7.81

PnL

-$18.84

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Research grade

AvoidRavens at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Bills 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ravens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.0%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4788.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

4888.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.