Spread: Ravens (-17.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (40%) · Bills at 95¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Bills
5
Bills 40%
$31.6K
$291.08
96.5¢ → 95.3¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBills at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0F 0F62 | Billsavg 96.5¢ | $30.5K | $30.5K | -$16.47 | 53% 2097-1864 (3961) |
 NooseracCTR | Ravensavg 3.6¢ | $360.83 | $476.14 | +$115.31 | 52% 5832-5416 (11248) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Ravensavg 4¢ | $333.36 | $395.87 | +$62.51 | 53% 4278-3736 (8014) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Ravensavg 3¢ | $38.38 | $168.02 | +$129.64 | 53% 453-396 (849) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Billsavg 93¢ | $4.27 | $4.42 | +$0.1 | 53% 11582-10087 (21669) |
Invested
$30,529.58
Value
$30.5K
PnL
-$16.47
Record
53%
2097-1864 (3961)
NooseracCTRInvested
$360.83
Value
$476.14
PnL
+$115.31
Record
52%
5832-5416 (11248)
Invested
$333.36
Value
$395.87
PnL
+$62.51
Record
53%
4278-3736 (8014)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$38.38
Value
$168.02
PnL
+$129.64
Record
53%
453-396 (849)
Invested
$4.27
Value
$4.42
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
11582-10087 (21669)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.