Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 54¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$3.1K
$160.37
49¢ → 53.5¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 48¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$135.22 | 54% 17021-14267 (31288) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $940.89 | $920.87 | -$20.02 | 58% 41344-29975 (71319) |
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186 | Underavg 52¢ | $671.84 | $691.22 | +$19.38 | 46% 422-487 (909) |
BO BoomLaLa | Underavg 43¢ | $107.5 | $130 | +$26.25 | 53% 11512-10014 (21526) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $12.96 | $12.42 | -$0.54 | 58% 28294-20870 (49164) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $8.03 | $8.11 | +$0.08 | 54% 3276-2828 (6104) |
Invested
$1,180.61
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$135.22
Record
54%
17021-14267 (31288)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$940.89
Value
$920.87
PnL
-$20.02
Record
58%
41344-29975 (71319)
Invested
$671.84
Value
$691.22
PnL
+$19.38
Record
46%
422-487 (909)
Invested
$107.5
Value
$130
PnL
+$26.25
Record
53%
11512-10014 (21526)
Invested
$12.96
Value
$12.42
PnL
-$0.54
Record
58%
28294-20870 (49164)
Invested
$8.03
Value
$8.11
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
3276-2828 (6104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.