Falcons vs. Buccaneers
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Buccaneers (83%) · Buccaneers at 56¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Buccaneers
6
Buccaneers 83%
$2.7K
$36.71
53.2¢ → 55.5¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralBuccaneers at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Buccaneers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Buccaneersavg 56¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$18.22 | 58% 41507-30134 (71641) |
OD Oddstorm | Buccaneersavg 56¢ | $324.8 | $327.7 | +$2.9 | 38% 377-620 (997) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Buccaneersavg 34¢ | $226.99 | $242.5 | +$15.52 | 45% 670-828 (1498) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Buccaneersavg 56¢ | $36.96 | $37.29 | +$0.33 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Falconsavg 45¢ | $10.52 | $15.08 | -$0.35 | 65% 1702-922 (2624) |
SL slimjoe<$100 | Buccaneersavg 52¢ | $1.08 | $1.17 | +$0.09 | 51% 6489-6152 (12641) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,042.6
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$18.22
Record
58%
41507-30134 (71641)
Invested
$324.8
Value
$327.7
PnL
+$2.9
Record
38%
377-620 (997)
Invested
$226.99
Value
$242.5
PnL
+$15.52
Record
45%
670-828 (1498)
Invested
$36.96
Value
$37.29
PnL
+$0.33
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
Invested
$10.52
Value
$15.08
PnL
-$0.35
Record
65%
1702-922 (2624)
Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.17
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
6489-6152 (12641)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.