Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Seahawks, while the market favors Cardinals (53%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (70%) · Seahawks at 48¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Seahawks48¢Cardinals52¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 70%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$68.06

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 47.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Cardinals 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks48%

Cardinals53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,935

Combined PnL+$49.56

Cardinals3 traders

Total Value$617.44

Total Shares1,176

Combined PnL+$18.5

Seahawks — 70%Cardinals — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

91h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Seahawksavg 47.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$13.49	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
38 38791873984189CTR	Seahawksavg 46.7¢	$1.0K	$774.8	+$29.79	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
RollAwayTheDew	Cardinalsavg 50.6¢	$397.6	$412.21	+$14.61	54% 591-501 (1092)
NM NM-PCTR	Seahawksavg 47¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
GC GC-PCTR	Seahawksavg 47¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
HE Herdonia	Cardinalsavg 51¢	$152.81	$154.28	+$1.47	50% 4153-4222 (8375)
GA Gaditima<$100	Cardinalsavg 50¢	$48.52	$50.94	+$2.43	47% 8628-9767 (18395)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Seahawksavg 47¢	$36.19	$36.57	+$0.38	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 46¢	$18.86	$19.48	+$0.62	48% 8324-8883 (17207)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 46¢	$7.62	$7.9	+$0.28	52% 27203-24713 (51916)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$1,022.96

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$13.49

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

38791873984189CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$1,010.01

Value

$774.8

PnL

+$29.79

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

RollAwayTheDew

Cardinals

Invested

$397.6

Value

$412.21

PnL

+$14.61

Record

54%

591-501 (1092)

NM-PCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$235

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

GC-PCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$235

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

Herdonia

Cardinals

Invested

$152.81

Value

$154.28

PnL

+$1.47

Record

50%

4153-4222 (8375)

Gaditima<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$48.52

Value

$50.94

PnL

+$2.43

Record

47%

8628-9767 (18395)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$36.19

Value

$36.57

PnL

+$0.38

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

OddstormCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$18.86

Value

$19.48

PnL

+$0.62

Record

48%

8324-8883 (17207)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$7.62

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$0.28

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Cardinals 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

91h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.