Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cardinals, while the market favors Seahawks (55%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Cardinals (91%) · Cardinals at 46¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 8

Seahawks55¢Cardinals45¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cardinals

Consensus Traders

Cardinals 91%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$36.04

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 45.5¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralCardinals at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cardinals

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 55%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks55%

Cardinals46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cardinals10 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares14,209

Combined PnL+$33.07

Seahawks1 trader

Total Value$265.83

Total Shares497

Combined PnL+$2.98

Cardinals — 91%Seahawks — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Cardinals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCardinals 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrCardinals 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Cardinals 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cardinalsavg 46¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$21.69	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cardinalsavg 46¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$18.86	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
AN Anon455CTR	Cardinalsavg 46¢	$920	$910	-$10	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Cardinalsavg 47¢	$664.6	$657.53	-$7.07	54% 591-501 (1092)
SE sentrioCTR	Cardinalsavg 46¢	$417.65	$413.11	-$4.54	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
SN SnakeBall	Seahawksavg 52.9¢	$262.85	$265.83	+$2.98	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
NM NM-PCTR	Cardinalsavg 46¢	$500	$232.5	+$2.5	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
GC GC-PCTR	Cardinalsavg 46¢	$230	$232.5	+$2.5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Cardinalsavg 45¢	$177.53	$183.45	+$5.92	50% 4153-4222 (8375)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 45¢	$96.65	$99.97	+$3.33	48% 8324-8883 (17207)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 45.9¢	$14.22	$14.11	-$0.11	52% 27203-24713 (51916)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$2,145.43

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$21.69

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

38791873984189CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$1,732.67

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$18.86

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Anon455CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$920

Value

$910

PnL

-$10

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$664.6

Value

$657.53

PnL

-$7.07

Record

54%

591-501 (1092)

sentrioCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$417.65

Value

$413.11

PnL

-$4.54

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

SnakeBall

Seahawks

Invested

$262.85

Value

$265.83

PnL

+$2.98

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

NM-PCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$500

Value

$232.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

GC-PCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$230

Value

$232.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

HerdoniaCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$177.53

Value

$183.45

PnL

+$5.92

Record

50%

4153-4222 (8375)

OddstormCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$96.65

Value

$99.97

PnL

+$3.33

Record

48%

8324-8883 (17207)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$14.22

Value

$14.11

PnL

-$0.11

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Research grade

NeutralCardinals at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cardinals

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 55%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Cardinals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCardinals 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrCardinals 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Cardinals 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cardinals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.