Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (40%) · Seahawks at 83¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 8

Seahawks83¢Cardinals17¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 40%

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

$266.3

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 82.5¢

+45% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks83%

Cardinals18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks4 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares17,928

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Cardinals6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares3,940

Combined PnL-$895.83

Seahawks — 40%Cardinals — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Seahawksavg 56.7¢	$9.6K	$10.6K	+$1.1K	54% 1455-1257 (2712)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Cardinalsavg 45.6¢	$1.4K	$524.88	-$841.89	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cardinalsavg 39.3¢	$439.89	$426.46	-$13.43	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
JU justaluckydude	Seahawksavg 63.5¢	$233.73	$303.65	+$69.92	53% 13686-12062 (25748)
38 38791873984189	Seahawksavg 61.4¢	$421.57	$275.31	+$6.24	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9	Seahawksavg 51.7¢	$144.3	$175.67	+$31.37	48% 598-655 (1253)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 40.7¢	$37.87	$34.41	-$3.46	48% 8326-8887 (17213)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 46.3¢	$54.4	$20.54	-$33.86	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 38.5¢	$3.86	$1.75	-$2.1	57% 24685-18276 (42961)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 38.5¢	$2	$0.91	-$1.09	45% 462-569 (1031)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Seahawks

Invested

$9,557.43

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

1455-1257 (2712)

6512395314597884CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$1,366.78

Value

$524.88

PnL

-$841.89

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$439.89

Value

$426.46

PnL

-$13.43

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

justaluckydude

Seahawks

Invested

$233.73

Value

$303.65

PnL

+$69.92

Record

53%

13686-12062 (25748)

38791873984189

Seahawks

Invested

$421.57

Value

$275.31

PnL

+$6.24

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9

Seahawks

Invested

$144.3

Value

$175.67

PnL

+$31.37

Record

48%

598-655 (1253)

OddstormCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$37.87

Value

$34.41

PnL

-$3.46

Record

48%

8326-8887 (17213)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$54.4

Value

$20.54

PnL

-$33.86

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$3.86

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$2.1

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$1.09

Record

45%

462-569 (1031)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.