Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 86¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
1 arb excluded
$11.3K
$877.17
54.1¢ → 85.5¢
+58% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Overavg 48.4¢ | $5.8K | $5.1K | -$661.37 | 55% 3014-2443 (5457) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.3¢ | $2.1K | $3.1K | +$981.03 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 48.4¢ | $3.6K | $2.0K | $-1.6K | |
 RN1 | Underavg 52.2¢ | $4.1K | $4.8K | +$710.29 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Overavg 55.8¢ | $606.81 | $824.34 | +$217.53 | 53% 11037-9631 (20668) |
PR primm | Underavg 65¢ | $561.94 | $574.91 | +$12.97 | 46% 1131-1309 (2440) |
TO topdogbigboi | Underavg 58.3¢ | $101.92 | $42.89 | -$59.03 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $6.36 | $6.65 | +$0.3 | 51% 6082-5802 (11884) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $6.84 | $2.97 | -$3.87 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $3.63 | $2.59 | -$1.04 | 53% 4278-3736 (8014) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $1.47 | $1.51 | +$0.04 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
Invested
$5,751.91
Value
$5.1K
PnL
-$661.37
Record
55%
3014-2443 (5457)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$4,080.21
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$710.29
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$606.81
Value
$824.34
PnL
+$217.53
Record
53%
11037-9631 (20668)
Invested
$561.94
Value
$574.91
PnL
+$12.97
Record
46%
1131-1309 (2440)
Invested
$101.92
Value
$42.89
PnL
-$59.03
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$6.36
Value
$6.65
PnL
+$0.3
Record
51%
6082-5802 (11884)
Invested
$6.84
Value
$2.97
PnL
-$3.87
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$3.63
Value
$2.59
PnL
-$1.04
Record
53%
4278-3736 (8014)
Invested
$1.47
Value
$1.51
PnL
+$0.04
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.