Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 46.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 77¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
1 arb excluded
$16.1K
$2.0K
54.1¢ → 76.5¢
+41% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 54.3¢ | $5.6K | $7.0K | +$1.5K | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
 Nooserac | Overavg 51¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$27.8 | 52% 5832-5416 (11248) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $3.1K | $2.9K | -$232.46 | 55% 3014-2443 (5457) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$112.78 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 57¢ | $1.7K | $1.4K | -$345.24 | |
PR primmCTR | Underavg 53.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.8K | +$459.39 | 46% 1131-1309 (2440) |
JU justaluckydude | Overavg 65.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$15.12 | 53% 11037-9631 (20668) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 41¢ | $212.38 | $209.79 | -$2.59 | 50% 19465-19831 (39296) |
TO topdogbigboi | Overavg 62.5¢ | $124.01 | $155.66 | +$31.65 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $2.38 | +$0.88 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
RN1Invested
$5,560.33
Value
$7.0K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
NooseracInvested
$2,835.5
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$27.8
Record
52%
5832-5416 (11248)
Invested
$3,084.77
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$232.46
Record
55%
3014-2443 (5457)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,370
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$459.39
Record
46%
1131-1309 (2440)
Invested
$1,187.3
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$15.12
Record
53%
11037-9631 (20668)
Invested
$212.38
Value
$209.79
PnL
-$2.59
Record
50%
19465-19831 (39296)
Invested
$124.01
Value
$155.66
PnL
+$31.65
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$2.38
PnL
+$0.88
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.