Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Cardinals, while the market favors Cowboys (52%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Cardinals (50%) · Cardinals at 48¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Cardinals
6
Cardinals 50%
$10.0K
$250.57
48.8¢ → 48¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralCardinals at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Cardinalsavg 47.5¢ | $3.0K | $3.2K | +$334.41 | 58% 40596-29352 (69948) |
RO roldyCTR | Cardinalsavg 51¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$100 | 55% 1404-1163 (2567) |
MA MAGATheeStallion | Cowboysavg 53¢ | $2.0K | $1.8K | -$226.38 | 58% 239-173 (412) |
 0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492 | Cowboysavg 49¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$61.87 | 49% 771-789 (1560) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Cardinalsavg 47¢ | $817.9 | $922.32 | +$104.41 | 54% 16767-14068 (30835) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Cowboysavg 47¢ | $18.8 | $18.8 | -$0 | 53% 11428-9958 (21386) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$2,958.09
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$334.41
Record
58%
40596-29352 (69948)
Invested
$2,549.99
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$100
Record
55%
1404-1163 (2567)
Invested
$1,999.69
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$226.38
Record
58%
239-173 (412)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492Invested
$1,515.81
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$61.87
Record
49%
771-789 (1560)
Invested
$817.9
Value
$922.32
PnL
+$104.41
Record
54%
16767-14068 (30835)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$18.8
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
11428-9958 (21386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.