Spread: Cowboys (-17.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Cardinals (80%) · Cardinals at 80¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Cardinals
5
Cardinals 80%
$17.3K
-$104.68
80¢ → 79.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCardinals at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Cardinalsavg 80¢ | $7.6K | $7.6K | -$47.65 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Cardinalsavg 80.1¢ | $5.5K | $5.5K | -$42.57 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
 VeryLucky888 | Cardinalsavg 80¢ | $4.1K | $3.3K | -$20.71 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Cardinalsavg 80¢ | $800 | $800 | +$5 | 53% 5696-5031 (10727) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Cowboysavg 20¢ | $50 | $50 | +$1.25 | 53% 11582-10087 (21669) |
Invested
$7,623.36
Value
$7.6K
PnL
-$47.65
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$5,504.62
Value
$5.5K
PnL
-$42.57
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
VeryLucky888Invested
$4,142.45
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$20.71
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$800
Value
$800
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
5696-5031 (10727)
Invested
$50
Value
$50
PnL
+$1.25
Record
53%
11582-10087 (21669)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.