Cardinals vs. Cowboys

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (40%) · Cowboys at 71¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1

Cardinals30¢Cowboys70¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 40%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$24.45

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 70.5¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cardinals30%

Cowboys71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,051

Combined PnL+$46.48

Cardinals3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares6,768

Combined PnL-$70.94

Cowboys — 40%Cardinals — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cardinals) and the top 1000 (4 on Cowboys) disagree here.

sharpCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCowboys 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedCardinals 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cowboys 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MAGATheeStallion	Cowboysavg 73¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	+$41.09	57% 245-184 (429)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cardinalsavg 26.8¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$82.51	58% 41483-30105 (71588)
38 38791873984189	Cowboysavg 72.8¢	$227.21	$232.6	+$5.39	46% 7925-9338 (17263)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 25¢	$64.67	$76.31	+$11.64	—
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 28¢	$0.78	$0.69	-$0.07	65% 1700-920 (2620)

MAGATheeStallion

Cowboys

Invested

$1,999.47

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$41.09

Record

57%

245-184 (429)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$1,742.41

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$82.51

Record

58%

41483-30105 (71588)

38791873984189

Cowboys

Invested

$227.21

Value

$232.6

PnL

+$5.39

Record

46%

7925-9338 (17263)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$64.67

Value

$76.31

PnL

+$11.64

Record

—

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$0.07

Record

65%

1700-920 (2620)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cardinals) and the top 1000 (4 on Cowboys) disagree here.

sharpCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCowboys 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedCardinals 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cowboys 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.