Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 26, 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 0.9¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 27

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$3.0K

Smart Money Entry

35.5¢ → 0.9¢

-97% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares5,290

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,517

Combined PnL+$435.36

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR troimCTR	Noavg 1.1¢	$33	$2.3K	+$2.3K	36% 379-672 (1051)
The-JokerCTR	Noavg 78.1¢	$987.15	$1.3K	+$289.78	68% 1468-683 (2151)
Rex416	Yesavg 99.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$4.17	57% 2446-1824 (4270)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 22¢	$195.69	$880.6	+$684.91	36% 14106-25213 (39319)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR	Noavg 92.8¢	$436.96	$450.72	+$13.72	73% 116-44 (160)
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Yesavg 85¢	$339.83	$93.96	-$245.87	50% 381-388 (769)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$62.18	$68.8	+$6.62	62% 19071-11688 (30759)
MA MarquisDeMott<$100	Yesavg 98.2¢	$59.47	$59.95	+$0.48	97% 2668-72 (2740)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$33.57	$45.9	+$12.33	45% 107-129 (236)

troimCTR

Invested

$33

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

36%

379-672 (1051)

The-JokerCTR

Invested

$987.15

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$289.78

Record

68%

1468-683 (2151)

Rex416

Yes

Invested

$1,162.66

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$4.17

Record

57%

2446-1824 (4270)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$195.69

Value

$880.6

PnL

+$684.91

Record

36%

14106-25213 (39319)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR

Invested

$436.96

Value

$450.72

PnL

+$13.72

Record

73%

116-44 (160)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Yes

Invested

$339.83

Value

$93.96

PnL

-$245.87

Record

50%

381-388 (769)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$62.18

Value

$68.8

PnL

+$6.62

Record

62%

19071-11688 (30759)

MarquisDeMott<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.47

Value

$59.95

PnL

+$0.48

Record

97%

2668-72 (2740)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR<$100

Invested

$33.57

Value

$45.9

PnL

+$12.33

Record

45%

107-129 (236)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.0%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4834.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

4934.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.