Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
1
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$177.03
$0.14
Research grade
AvoidYes at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 73.2¢ | $151.91 | $150.1 | -$1.51 | 18% 365-1635 (2000) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.2¢ | $109.88 | $114.08 | +$4.2 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.8¢ | $41.72 | $36.03 | -$5.71 | |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.8¢ | $29.7 | $26.93 | +$0.14 | 42% 5283-7233 (12516) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.