Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will FC Volendam win on 2026-10-30?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 42¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
2 arb excluded
$4.2K
-$69.74
48.9¢ → 41.5¢
-15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 50.6¢ | $1.9K | $1.7K | -$147.96 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 52.3¢ | $842.32 | $1.2K | +$316.99 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50.6¢ | $1.0K | $576.48 | -$464.95 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 48.2¢ | $1.2K | $983.71 | -$227.47 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48.2¢ | $891.18 | $526.46 | -$364.72 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $320 | $457.25 | +$137.25 | |
KK kkpay19888CTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $979.99 | $979.99 | -$0 | 51% 528-512 (1040) |
 RN1 | Noavg 33¢ | $499.93 | $433.77 | -$66.16 | 54% 56331-48482 (104813) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $59.14 | $60.64 | +$1.49 | 58% 28428-20989 (49417) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 38.7¢ | $27.25 | $23.48 | -$3.77 | 52% 4016-3659 (7675) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 54% 4856-4082 (8938) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $3.43 | $3.57 | -$1.3 | 38% 3213-5245 (8458) |
Invested
$1,883.75
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$147.96
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,211.18
Value
$983.71
PnL
-$227.47
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Both legs:
Invested
$979.99
Value
$979.99
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
528-512 (1040)
RN1Invested
$499.93
Value
$433.77
PnL
-$66.16
Record
54%
56331-48482 (104813)
Invested
$59.14
Value
$60.64
PnL
+$1.49
Record
58%
28428-20989 (49417)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$27.25
Value
$23.48
PnL
-$3.77
Record
52%
4016-3659 (7675)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
4856-4082 (8938)
Invested
$3.43
Value
$3.57
PnL
-$1.3
Record
38%
3213-5245 (8458)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.