Will De Graafschap win on 2026-10-30?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 79¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.0K
$131.96
73.2¢ → 78.5¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 74.1¢ | $584.29 | $705.74 | +$121.46 | 50% 24858-24564 (49422) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 70¢ | $169.28 | $175.1 | +$5.82 | 58% 28428-20989 (49417) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 71.8¢ | $105.78 | $103.95 | -$1.83 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $5.97 | $11.94 | +$5.97 | 54% 56331-48482 (104813) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $1.84 | $2.4 | +$0.56 | 38% 3213-5245 (8458) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $1.42 | $1.4 | -$0.02 | 52% 4016-3659 (7675) |
Invested
$584.29
Value
$705.74
PnL
+$121.46
Record
50%
24858-24564 (49422)
Invested
$169.28
Value
$175.1
PnL
+$5.82
Record
58%
28428-20989 (49417)
Invested
$105.78
Value
$103.95
PnL
-$1.83
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$5.97
Value
$11.94
PnL
+$5.97
Record
54%
56331-48482 (104813)
Invested
$1.84
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.56
Record
38%
3213-5245 (8458)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.42
Value
$1.4
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
4016-3659 (7675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.