Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (95%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Vitesse Arnhem vs. De Graafschap end in a draw?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 5.5¢ · $39K held · ended Nov 8

Yes95¢No5¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$38.9K

Combined PnL

$17.8K

Smart Money Entry

31.1¢ → 5.5¢

-82% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$25.7K

Total Shares42,887

Combined PnL+$12.3K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares15,484

Combined PnL+$5.5K

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SL SlickRick123CTR	Noavg 23.9¢	$6.1K	$19.2K	+$13.1K	48% 5549-6067 (11616)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	Yesavg 46.1¢	$6.0K	$9.4K	+$5.2K	55% 118-97 (215)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 73.4¢	$5.6K	$5.8K	+$160.78	50% 2796-2767 (5563)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 74.9¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$619.78	62% 998-609 (1607)
AH aHjCzCTR	Noavg 16.5¢	$1.6K	$578.39	$-1.0K	36% 6093-11041 (17134)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 89.3¢	$390.86	$418.17	+$27.31	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
81 0x8191...8a35	Yesavg 92¢	$387.9	$404.77	+$16.87	—
dips.	Yesavg 93.8¢	$281.51	$283.49	+$1.98	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
LO looppau	Yesavg 71¢	$605.54	$208.86	-$396.69	99% 13202-108 (13310)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 29.2¢	$23.35	$60.4	+$37.05	64% 5377-2997 (8374)

SlickRick123CTR

Invested

$6,095.87

Value

$19.2K

PnL

+$13.1K

Record

48%

5549-6067 (11616)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

Yes

Invested

$5,992.99

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$5.2K

Record

55%

118-97 (215)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$5,645.45

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$160.78

Record

50%

2796-2767 (5563)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$2,319.38

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$619.78

Record

62%

998-609 (1607)

aHjCzCTR

Invested

$1,593.91

Value

$578.39

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

36%

6093-11041 (17134)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$390.86

Value

$418.17

PnL

+$27.31

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

0x8191...8a35

Yes

Invested

$387.9

Value

$404.77

PnL

+$16.87

Record

—

dips.

Yes

Invested

$281.51

Value

$283.49

PnL

+$1.98

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

looppau

Yes

Invested

$605.54

Value

$208.86

PnL

-$396.69

Record

99%

13202-108 (13310)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$23.35

Value

$60.4

PnL

+$37.05

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.