Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Magic (52%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Magic (-2.5)

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (83%) · Wizards at 49¢ · $6K held

Magic52¢Wizards48¢View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$2.28

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 48.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic52%

Wizards49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,453

Combined PnL-$54.11

Magic1 trader

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,758

Combined PnL+$56.38

Wizards — 83%Magic — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+72 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWizards 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Wizardsavg 49.2¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$42.78	54% 17515-14719 (32234)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Magicavg 50¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$56.38	53% 627-550 (1177)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 50.2¢	$508.24	$500.09	-$8.15	47% 13029-14600 (27629)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 50.2¢	$379.21	$366.18	-$13.03
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 49.6¢	$129.03	$133.91	+$4.88
VeryLucky888CTR	Wizardsavg 48.5¢	$314.39	$314.18	-$0.21	58% 43617-31727 (75344)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Wizardsavg 50¢	$320.97	$311.34	-$9.63	51% 1005-965 (1970)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Wizardsavg 49.7¢	$250.98	$250	-$0.98	54% 3479-3014 (6493)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 49.7¢	$197.39	$192.5	-$4.89
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 48¢	$53.59	$57.5	+$3.91
SE sentrioCTR	Wizardsavg 49¢	$128.03	$126.72	-$1.31	50% 25009-24731 (49740)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 52¢	$5	$2.43	-$0.18	53% 7644-6915 (14559)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Wizards

Invested

$2,902.79

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$42.78

Record

54%

17515-14719 (32234)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Magic

Invested

$1,878.91

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$56.38

Record

53%

627-550 (1177)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$508.24

Value

$500.09

PnL

-$8.15

Record

47%

13029-14600 (27629)

Both legs:

Wizards$379.2150.2¢-$13.03

Magic$129.0349.6¢+$4.88

VeryLucky888CTR

Wizards

Invested

$314.39

Value

$314.18

PnL

-$0.21

Record

58%

43617-31727 (75344)

ferdinand2CTR

Wizards

Invested

$320.97

Value

$311.34

PnL

-$9.63

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$250.98

Value

$250

PnL

-$0.98

Record

54%

3479-3014 (6493)

Both legs:

Wizards$197.3949.7¢-$4.89

Magic$53.5948¢+$3.91

sentrioCTR

Wizards

Invested

$128.03

Value

$126.72

PnL

-$1.31

Record

50%

25009-24731 (49740)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

7644-6915 (14559)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+72 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWizards 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.