Spread: Magic (-1.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (33%) · Magic at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Magic
6
Magic 33%
$3.7K
-$32.56
53.7¢ → 54.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidMagic at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Magicavg 54¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | -$25 | 46% 7287-8597 (15884) |
TH TheComboConnoisseur | Magicavg 52¢ | $520 | $535 | +$15 | 51% 899-851 (1750) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Wizardsavg 47.9¢ | $248.64 | $238.64 | -$10 | 58% 43600-31711 (75311) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Wizardsavg 48¢ | $240 | $230 | -$10 | 53% 5749-5085 (10834) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 48¢ | $58.99 | $56.53 | -$2.46 | 47% 2622-2922 (5544) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.3 | -$0.1 | 52% 7639-6913 (14552) |
nigiri99Invested
$2,700
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$25
Record
46%
7287-8597 (15884)
Invested
$520
Value
$535
PnL
+$15
Record
51%
899-851 (1750)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$248.64
Value
$238.64
PnL
-$10
Record
58%
43600-31711 (75311)
Invested
$240
Value
$230
PnL
-$10
Record
53%
5749-5085 (10834)
Invested
$58.99
Value
$56.53
PnL
-$2.46
Record
47%
2622-2922 (5544)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.3
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
7639-6913 (14552)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.