Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Magic (56%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Wizards vs. Magic

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (54%) · Wizards at 45¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 3

Wizards45¢Magic55¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

$116.68

Smart Money Entry

43.5¢ → 44.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wizards45%

Magic56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards7 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares14,226

Combined PnL+$71.03

Magic6 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares7,387

Combined PnL+$45.65

Wizards — 54%Magic — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	Wizardsavg 44¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$31.24	52% 1578-1465 (3043)
nigiri99	Magicavg 55.7¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$32.07	46% 7287-8587 (15874)
HI hi774cCTR	Wizardsavg 44¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$25.99	51% 4852-4594 (9446)
VeryLucky888	Magicavg 56¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$9	58% 43585-31701 (75286)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Wizardsavg 40¢	$763.48	$839.83	+$66.8	54% 404-347 (751)
65 6512395314597884	Magicavg 56¢	$8.6	$734.75	+$6.56	52% 2923-2744 (5667)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Wizardsavg 44¢	$287.5	$287.5	+$0	51% 990-958 (1948)
BO BoomLaLaARB<$100	Wizardsavg 46¢	$167.7	$120.03	-$2.68	54% 11661-10122 (21783)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 46¢	$66.71	$64.53	-$3.18
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 55¢	$55	$55.5	+$0.5
funnydayCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 44¢	$88	$87	-$1	50% 3925-3907 (7832)
GH ghorrock	Magicavg 55.9¢	$105.85	$45.32	-$1.82	57% 17226-12892 (30118)
TA takeormake<$100	Magicavg 57¢	$22.8	$22.6	-$0.2	53% 4424-3868 (8292)
SE sentrio<$100	Magicavg 55¢	$4.76	$4.8	+$0.04	50% 24998-24713 (49711)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 44¢	$4.76	$4.76	+$0	44% 6422-8027 (14449)
OM omnibus-424779CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 45¢	$2.67	$2.64	-$0.03	31% 1131-2559 (3690)

vibing123CTR

Wizards

Invested

$2,749.53

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$31.24

Record

52%

1578-1465 (3043)

nigiri99

Magic

Invested

$2,310.08

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$32.07

Record

46%

7287-8587 (15874)

hi774cCTR

Wizards

Invested

$2,287.15

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$25.99

Record

51%

4852-4594 (9446)

VeryLucky888

Magic

Invested

$1,007.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$9

Record

58%

43585-31701 (75286)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Wizards

Invested

$763.48

Value

$839.83

PnL

+$66.8

Record

54%

404-347 (751)

6512395314597884

Magic

Invested

$8.6

Value

$734.75

PnL

+$6.56

Record

52%

2923-2744 (5667)

ferdinand2CTR

Wizards

Invested

$287.5

Value

$287.5

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

990-958 (1948)

BoomLaLaARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$167.7

Value

$120.03

PnL

-$2.68

Record

54%

11661-10122 (21783)

Both legs:

Wizards$66.7146¢-$3.18

Magic$5555¢+$0.5

funnydayCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$88

Value

$87

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

3925-3907 (7832)

ghorrock

Magic

Invested

$105.85

Value

$45.32

PnL

-$1.82

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

takeormake<$100

Magic

Invested

$22.8

Value

$22.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

4424-3868 (8292)

sentrio<$100

Magic

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

24998-24713 (49711)

suntoriCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

6422-8027 (14449)

omnibus-424779CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$2.67

Value

$2.64

PnL

-$0.03

Record

31%

1131-2559 (3690)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.