Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Wizards vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 45¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 8

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.7K

Combined PnL

-$725

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 44.5¢

-11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares17,244

Combined PnL-$962.07

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares9,076

Combined PnL+$237.06

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99ARB<$100	Overavg 48.7¢	$8.2K	$8.6K	+$461.08	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.7¢	$5.3K	$6.1K	+$749.06
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.5¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$287.98
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Underavg 52¢	$5.2K	$4.4K	-$750	53% 667-585 (1252)
IA ianf2026CTR	Underavg 47¢	$4.0K	$3.0K	-$203.94	50% 122-123 (245)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 53¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$108.62	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
HI hi774c	Overavg 53¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$115.26	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 53.5¢	$702	$705.55	+$3.55	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.5¢	$380	$394.05	+$14.05
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$322	$311.5	-$10.5
GC GC-P	Overavg 53¢	$185.5	$194.25	+$8.75	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 46¢	$191.08	$184.85	-$6.23	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 53¢	$136.14	$138.78	+$2.64	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Overavg 53.9¢	$94.13	$93.73	-$0.4	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.9¢	$51.57	$53.11	+$1.54
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.6¢	$42.56	$40.62	-$1.94
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 52.5¢	$70.04	$55.36	+$0.62	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 49.7¢	$39.27	$27.29	+$1.18	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$9.35	$8.5	-$0.86	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$8.5	$7.57	-$0.93	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 46.8¢	$2.21	$2.11	-$0.11	58% 47503-34297 (81800)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$8,176.48

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$461.08

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

Both legs:

Over$5,327.0848.7¢+$749.06

Under$2,849.449.5¢-$287.98

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Under

Invested

$5,199.99

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$750

Record

53%

667-585 (1252)

ianf2026CTR

Under

Invested

$3,995

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$203.94

Record

50%

122-123 (245)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$2,534.71

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$108.62

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$2,434.95

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$115.26

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$702

Value

$705.55

PnL

+$3.55

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Both legs:

Invested

$185.5

Value

$194.25

PnL

+$8.75

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$191.08

Value

$184.85

PnL

-$6.23

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$136.14

Value

$138.78

PnL

+$2.64

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

sentrioARB<$100

Over

Invested

$94.13

Value

$93.73

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Both legs:

Over$51.5753.9¢+$1.54

Under$42.5646.6¢-$1.94

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$70.04

Value

$55.36

PnL

+$0.62

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$39.27

Value

$27.29

PnL

+$1.18

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.35

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$0.86

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.5

Value

$7.57

PnL

-$0.93

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.21

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$0.11

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.