Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Thunder (81%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Wizards vs. Thunder

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (40%) · Wizards at 20¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Wizards20¢Thunder80¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$8.38

Smart Money Entry

20.8¢ → 19.5¢

-6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wizards20%

Thunder81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards4 traders

Total Value$687.16

Total Shares3,418

Combined PnL-$16.5

Thunder6 traders

Total Value$848.16

Total Shares1,049

Combined PnL+$8.12

Wizards — 40%Thunder — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Wizardsavg 20¢	$503.03	$515.78	+$12.75	46% 8745-10440 (19185)
PU purplegatto	Thunderavg 79.3¢	$429.88	$436.28	+$6.39	49% 6375-6549 (12924)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Thunderavg 78.8¢	$348.92	$273.92	-$3.68	48% 7443-7977 (15420)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 78.8¢	$211.19	$215.74	-$15.99
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 22.1¢	$65.8	$58.18	+$12.32
38 38791873984189	Thunderavg 80¢	$173.6	$172.52	-$1.08	48% 62298-67159 (129457)
TA takeormakeCTR	Wizardsavg 22¢	$166.54	$143.83	-$22.71	52% 5074-4621 (9695)
wowfarm<$100	Thunderavg 80.8¢	$96.96	$95.4	-$1.56	71% 4951-1989 (6940)
GH ghorrock	Thunderavg 80¢	$102.91	$68.83	+$0.36	58% 21639-15721 (37360)
PA Pan9X<$100	Thunderavg 73¢	$56.03	$62.18	+$3.45	54% 10365-8691 (19056)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 28.9¢	$29.77	$23.23	-$6.54	47% 7493-8302 (15795)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Thunderavg 73¢	$11.68	$12.96	+$0.56	64% 2032-1134 (3166)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 19¢	$4.32	$4.32	+$0	53% 12568-11272 (23840)

nigiri99CTR

Wizards

Invested

$503.03

Value

$515.78

PnL

+$12.75

Record

46%

8745-10440 (19185)

purplegatto

Thunder

Invested

$429.88

Value

$436.28

PnL

+$6.39

Record

49%

6375-6549 (12924)

OddstormARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$348.92

Value

$273.92

PnL

-$3.68

Record

48%

7443-7977 (15420)

Both legs:

Thunder$211.1978.8¢-$15.99

Wizards$65.822.1¢+$12.32

38791873984189

Thunder

Invested

$173.6

Value

$172.52

PnL

-$1.08

Record

48%

62298-67159 (129457)

takeormakeCTR

Wizards

Invested

$166.54

Value

$143.83

PnL

-$22.71

Record

52%

5074-4621 (9695)

wowfarm<$100

Thunder

Invested

$96.96

Value

$95.4

PnL

-$1.56

Record

71%

4951-1989 (6940)

ghorrock

Thunder

Invested

$102.91

Value

$68.83

PnL

+$0.36

Record

58%

21639-15721 (37360)

Pan9X<$100

Thunder

Invested

$56.03

Value

$62.18

PnL

+$3.45

Record

54%

10365-8691 (19056)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$29.77

Value

$23.23

PnL

-$6.54

Record

47%

7493-8302 (15795)

darkumbreon88<$100

Thunder

Invested

$11.68

Value

$12.96

PnL

+$0.56

Record

64%

2032-1134 (3166)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

12568-11272 (23840)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.