Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 73¢ · $831 held · ends Nov 12

Over27¢Under73¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$830.99

Combined PnL

$5.04

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 73¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$607.59

Total Shares817

Combined PnL+$7.04

Over3 traders

Total Value$223.4

Total Shares850

Combined PnL-$2

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Underavg 73.5¢	$507.2	$514.05	+$6.85	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 27¢	$121.4	$121.4	+$0	30% 373-863 (1236)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$98.8	$96.9	-$1.9	31% 376-842 (1218)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 73.4¢	$93.35	$93.54	+$0.19	48% 659-706 (1365)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$5.2	$5.1	-$0.1	30% 372-861 (1233)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$507.2

Value

$514.05

PnL

+$6.85

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$121.4

Value

$121.4

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

373-863 (1236)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$98.8

Value

$96.9

PnL

-$1.9

Record

31%

376-842 (1218)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$93.35

Value

$93.54

PnL

+$0.19

Record

48%

659-706 (1365)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

30%

372-861 (1233)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.