Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 69¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
$273.2
61.1¢ → 69¢
+13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 69%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4 | Underavg 61¢ | $2.0K | $2.3K | +$266.97 | 18% 48-217 (265) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 24.7¢ | $536.02 | $484.23 | +$87.06 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 24.7¢ | $227.42 | $285.51 | +$87.06 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 69¢ | $198.72 | $198.72 | -$0 | |
LI LimousinCTR | Overavg 31¢ | $198.96 | $198.96 | +$0 | 30% 369-862 (1231) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 31¢ | $21.87 | $21.87 | +$0 | 30% 368-861 (1229) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $56.39 | $21.32 | +$6.22 | 48% 654-705 (1359) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $16.81 | $16.81 | -$0 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
Invested
$2,035.68
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$266.97
Record
18%
48-217 (265)
Invested
$536.02
Value
$484.23
PnL
+$87.06
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
Both legs:
Invested
$198.96
Value
$198.96
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
369-862 (1231)
Invested
$21.87
Value
$21.87
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
368-861 (1229)
Invested
$56.39
Value
$21.32
PnL
+$6.22
Record
48%
654-705 (1359)
Invested
$16.81
Value
$16.81
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.