Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 230.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 57¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
$3.18
56.3¢ → 57¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 56.2¢ | $823.27 | $834.62 | +$11.35 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $403.6 | $395.7 | -$7.9 | 48% 1332-1446 (2778) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 58¢ | $232 | $228 | -$4 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 44¢ | $171.6 | $167.7 | -$3.9 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $323.22 | $315.87 | -$7.35 | 45% 263-317 (580) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Overavg 42¢ | $198.24 | $198.24 | +$0 | 30% 373-864 (1237) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $44.45 | $34.61 | -$0.82 | 48% 662-711 (1373) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $34.4 | $34.4 | +$0 | 67% 1645-796 (2441) |
Invested
$823.27
Value
$834.62
PnL
+$11.35
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$403.6
Value
$395.7
PnL
-$7.9
Record
48%
1332-1446 (2778)
Both legs:
Invested
$323.22
Value
$315.87
PnL
-$7.35
Record
45%
263-317 (580)
Invested
$198.24
Value
$198.24
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
373-864 (1237)
Invested
$44.45
Value
$34.61
PnL
-$0.82
Record
48%
662-711 (1373)
Invested
$34.4
Value
$34.4
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
1645-796 (2441)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.