Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 228.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 48¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
1 arb excluded
$8.4K
$8.43
47.7¢ → 47.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HG hgawxCTR | Overavg 47.7¢ | $4.2K | $4.2K | -$20.81 | 6% 3-44 (47) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 52¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | +$34.71 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 47.6¢ | $262.64 | $194.81 | -$2.31 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47.6¢ | $115.3 | $115.01 | -$0.29 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53¢ | $80.56 | $79.8 | -$2.02 | |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $172.49 | $168.82 | -$3.67 | 30% 372-861 (1233) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $117.5 | $115 | -$2.5 | 52% 445-417 (862) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $38.69 | $39.42 | +$0.73 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.38 | -$0.02 | 32% 282-611 (893) |
Invested
$4,213.68
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$20.81
Record
6%
3-44 (47)
Invested
$3,609.95
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$34.71
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$262.64
Value
$194.81
PnL
-$2.31
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Both legs:
Invested
$172.49
Value
$168.82
PnL
-$3.67
Record
30%
372-861 (1233)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$117.5
Value
$115
PnL
-$2.5
Record
52%
445-417 (862)
Invested
$38.69
Value
$39.42
PnL
+$0.73
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.38
PnL
-$0.02
Record
32%
282-611 (893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.