Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 226.5

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (10%) · Over at 53¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 12

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 10%

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

$34.9

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares14,674

Combined PnL+$73.37

Under9 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares14,434

Combined PnL-$38.47

Over — 10%Under — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 90% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 52¢	$7.6K	$7.7K	+$73.37	53% 1793-1600 (3393)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 48.2¢	$6.2K	$6.1K	-$30.28	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 48.3¢	$253.75	$252	-$1.75	59% 3476-2367 (5843)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 48.2¢	$204.02	$203.29	-$0.74	20% 97-381 (478)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 50¢	$137.5	$132	-$5.5	31% 376-842 (1218)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 48¢	$127.85	$127.85	+$0	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$48	$48	+$0	67% 1642-794 (2436)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$18.13	$18.13	-$0.01	54% 563-474 (1037)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$12	$12	+$0	48% 659-706 (1365)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.4	-$0.2	32% 282-611 (893)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$7,630.56

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$73.37

Record

53%

1793-1600 (3393)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$6,174.8

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$30.28

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$253.75

Value

$252

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3476-2367 (5843)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$204.02

Value

$203.29

PnL

-$0.74

Record

20%

97-381 (478)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$137.5

Value

$132

PnL

-$5.5

Record

31%

376-842 (1218)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$127.85

Value

$127.85

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

RLWGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$48

Value

$48

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

1642-794 (2436)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.13

Value

$18.13

PnL

-$0.01

Record

54%

563-474 (1037)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12

Value

$12

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

659-706 (1365)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

32%

282-611 (893)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 90% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.