Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 224.5
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 57¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 25%
2 arb excluded
$1.0K
$7.48
Research grade
AvoidOver at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 55.7¢ | $422.23 | $435.57 | +$13.33 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $265.7 | $262.61 | -$3.09 | 30% 373-863 (1236) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $208.01 | $204.63 | -$3.38 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 44¢ | $121.44 | $117.3 | -$4.14 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 57¢ | $86.57 | $87.33 | +$0.76 | |
PA Pan9XARB<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $66.89 | $66.1 | -$0.79 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 57¢ | $34.77 | $35.07 | +$0.3 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 44¢ | $32.12 | $31.03 | -$1.09 | |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $60.09 | $57.48 | -$2.61 | 30% 372-861 (1233) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.2 | -$0.15 | 32% 282-611 (893) |
Invested
$422.23
Value
$435.57
PnL
+$13.33
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$265.7
Value
$262.61
PnL
-$3.09
Record
30%
373-863 (1236)
Invested
$208.01
Value
$204.63
PnL
-$3.38
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.89
Value
$66.1
PnL
-$0.79
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.09
Value
$57.48
PnL
-$2.61
Record
30%
372-861 (1233)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$0.15
Record
32%
282-611 (893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.