Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors Wizards (60%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Pacers (-5.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (83%) · Pacers at 41¢ · $430 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
6
Pacers 83%
$430.3
-$1.63
40.4¢ → 40.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 41%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Pacersavg 40¢ | $250.57 | $250.57 | +$0 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Pacersavg 41¢ | $113.57 | $112.19 | -$1.38 | 31% 385-855 (1240) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Wizardsavg 59¢ | $44.77 | $45.53 | +$0.76 | 61% 927-593 (1520) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 43¢ | $12.92 | $12.02 | -$0.9 | 30% 379-881 (1260) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Pacersavg 40¢ | $6 | $6 | +$0 | 48% 1381-1515 (2896) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Pacersavg 41¢ | $4.1 | $4 | -$0.1 | 32% 297-622 (919) |
Invested
$250.57
Value
$250.57
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$113.57
Value
$112.19
PnL
-$1.38
Record
31%
385-855 (1240)
Invested
$44.77
Value
$45.53
PnL
+$0.76
Record
61%
927-593 (1520)
Invested
$12.92
Value
$12.02
PnL
-$0.9
Record
30%
379-881 (1260)
Invested
$6
Value
$6
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
1381-1515 (2896)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$4
PnL
-$0.1
Record
32%
297-622 (919)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.