Spread: Pacers (-4.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (20%) · Wizards at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Wizards
5
Wizards 20%
1 arb excluded
$3.6K
$0.88
Research grade
AvoidWizards at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Wizardsavg 54¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$17.14 | 54% 521-440 (961) |
LI LimousinCTR | Pacersavg 46¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$11.18 | 30% 369-862 (1231) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Pacersavg 46¢ | $459.4 | $454.41 | -$4.99 | 30% 368-861 (1229) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Pacersavg 46¢ | $135.02 | $135.02 | -$0 | 31% 373-839 (1212) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Wizardsavg 54¢ | $106.54 | $107.61 | +$1.07 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
| └ Wizards leg | Wizardsavg 54¢ | $61.56 | $62.13 | +$0.57 | |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 45¢ | $44.98 | $45.48 | +$0.5 | |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 46¢ | $7.93 | $7.84 | -$0.09 | 30% 373-861 (1234) |
Invested
$1,851.51
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$17.14
Record
54%
521-440 (961)
Invested
$1,028.6
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$11.18
Record
30%
369-862 (1231)
Invested
$459.4
Value
$454.41
PnL
-$4.99
Record
30%
368-861 (1229)
Invested
$135.02
Value
$135.02
PnL
-$0
Record
31%
373-839 (1212)
Invested
$106.54
Value
$107.61
PnL
+$1.07
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
Both legs:
Invested
$7.93
Value
$7.84
PnL
-$0.09
Record
30%
373-861 (1234)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.