Spread: Pacers (-2.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (50%) · Pacers at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Pacers53¢Wizards47¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$2.98

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers53%

Wizards48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,598

Combined PnL-$0.08

Wizards4 traders

Total Value$486.16

Total Shares1,020

Combined PnL+$3.05

Pacers — 50%Wizards — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWizards 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Pacersavg 52¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$0	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 48¢	$311.68	$312.01	+$0.33	48% 1299-1404 (2703)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 48¢	$166.08	$167.81	+$1.73
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 52¢	$145.6	$144.2	-$1.4
NM NM-PCTR	Wizardsavg 48¢	$168	$166.25	-$1.75	59% 3476-2367 (5843)
GC GC-PCTR	Wizardsavg 48¢	$168	$166.25	-$1.75	20% 97-381 (478)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Wizardsavg 46¢	$142.66	$148.86	+$6.2	31% 375-842 (1217)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pacersavg 52¢	$36.92	$36.92	+$0	48% 658-706 (1364)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 44.5¢	$4.45	$4.8	+$0.35	30% 372-863 (1235)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Pacersavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.63	+$0.02	53% 1791-1599 (3390)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Pacersavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.6	-$0.1	32% 281-611 (892)

HomeRunHazard

Pacers

Invested

$1,829

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$311.68

Value

$312.01

PnL

+$0.33

Record

48%

1299-1404 (2703)

Both legs:

Wizards$166.0848¢+$1.73

Pacers$145.652¢-$1.4

NM-PCTR

Wizards

Invested

$168

Value

$166.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3476-2367 (5843)

GC-PCTR

Wizards

Invested

$168

Value

$166.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

20%

97-381 (478)

MadridTimeCTR

Wizards

Invested

$142.66

Value

$148.86

PnL

+$6.2

Record

31%

375-842 (1217)

Pan9X<$100

Pacers

Invested

$36.92

Value

$36.92

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

658-706 (1364)

LimousinCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0.35

Record

30%

372-863 (1235)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

1791-1599 (3390)

ameisgoat11<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.1

Record

32%

281-611 (892)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWizards 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.