Wizards vs. Pacers
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (75%) · Pacers at 63¢ · $943 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
4
Pacers 75%
1 arb excluded
$942.77
-$4.42
62.9¢ → 62.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 63%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Pacersavg 63¢ | $612.57 | $607.63 | -$4.95 | 52% 128-119 (247) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Wizardsavg 38¢ | $299.17 | $296.94 | -$2.23 | 47% 149-168 (317) |
| └ Wizards leg | Wizardsavg 38¢ | $188.56 | $186.07 | -$2.48 | |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 62.4¢ | $110.61 | $110.86 | +$0.25 | |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Pacersavg 61.9¢ | $17.68 | $18 | +$0.31 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Pacersavg 62¢ | $14.44 | $14.65 | +$0.21 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Wizardsavg 37¢ | $5.57 | $5.57 | +$0 | 51% 3172-3070 (6242) |
nigiri99Invested
$612.57
Value
$607.63
PnL
-$4.95
Record
52%
128-119 (247)
Invested
$299.17
Value
$296.94
PnL
-$2.23
Record
47%
149-168 (317)
Both legs:
Invested
$17.68
Value
$18
PnL
+$0.31
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Invested
$14.44
Value
$14.65
PnL
+$0.21
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
Invested
$5.57
Value
$5.57
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
3172-3070 (6242)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.