Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 220.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (82%) · Over at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 82%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$17.42

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 46.5¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,204

Combined PnL-$16.63

Under2 traders

Total Value$74.37

Total Shares139

Combined PnL-$0.8

Over — 82%Under — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 47.1¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$16.2	30% 29-67 (96)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 46¢	$119.16	$120.45	+$1.3	5% 11-190 (201)
RN1CTR	Overavg 47¢	$117.5	$116.25	-$1.25	54% 235-203 (438)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$91.65	$90.68	-$0.97	49% 388-405 (793)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$80.49	$81.37	+$0.87	6% 11-164 (175)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100	Underavg 54¢	$72.36	$71.69	-$0.67	1% 1-168 (169)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$20.43	$20.21	-$0.22	53% 87-77 (164)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$17.39	$17.21	-$0.18	48% 174-190 (364)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$7.36	$7.44	+$0.08	26% 89-254 (343)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$4.93	$4.88	-$0.05	24% 84-270 (354)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 55¢	$2.8	$2.68	-$0.13	19% 44-191 (235)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,153.18

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$16.2

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$119.16

Value

$120.45

PnL

+$1.3

Record

11-190 (201)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$117.5

Value

$116.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

235-203 (438)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$91.65

Value

$90.68

PnL

-$0.97

Record

49%

388-405 (793)

NM-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$80.49

Value

$81.37

PnL

+$0.87

Record

11-164 (175)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100

Under

Invested

$72.36

Value

$71.69

PnL

-$0.67

Record

1-168 (169)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.43

Value

$20.21

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

87-77 (164)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.39

Value

$17.21

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.36

Value

$7.44

PnL

+$0.08

Record

26%

89-254 (343)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.93

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$0.05

Record

24%

84-270 (354)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.68

PnL

-$0.13

Record

19%

44-191 (235)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.