Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 56¢ · $725 held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 29%
$724.52
$7.22
54.4¢ → 56.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 54¢ | $252.99 | $264.7 | +$11.71 | — |
 nigiri99 | Overavg 55¢ | $166.1 | $170.63 | +$4.53 | — |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 45.5¢ | $148.32 | $141.69 | -$6.63 | — |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 45¢ | $121.44 | $120.06 | -$1.38 | — |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 45.4¢ | $37 | $16.1 | -$0.68 | — |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $9.37 | $9.16 | -$0.21 | — |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.18 | -$0.13 | — |
Invested
$252.99
Value
$264.7
PnL
+$11.71
Record
—
nigiri99Invested
$166.1
Value
$170.63
PnL
+$4.53
Record
—
RN1CTRInvested
$148.32
Value
$141.69
PnL
-$6.63
Record
—
Invested
$121.44
Value
$120.06
PnL
-$1.38
Record
—
Invested
$37
Value
$16.1
PnL
-$0.68
Record
—
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$9.37
Value
$9.16
PnL
-$0.21
Record
—
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.18
PnL
-$0.13
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.