Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wizards, while the market favors Pistons (54%). 13 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pistons (-8.5)

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (81%) · Wizards at 47¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 10

Pistons54¢Wizards46¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 81%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.0K

Combined PnL

-$170.54

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 46.5¢

+0% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

13 of 16 top traders (81%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons54%

Wizards47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards13 traders

Total Value$24.1K

Total Shares51,715

Combined PnL-$81.29

Pistons3 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares17,383

Combined PnL-$89.24

Wizards — 81%Pistons — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWizards 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TM TMingchanCTR	Wizardsavg 47¢	$9.4K	$9.3K	-$100	— 2-15 (17)
nigiri99	Pistonsavg 54¢	$9.3K	$9.2K	-$85.99	42% 28-38 (66)
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Wizardsavg 47¢	$6.7K	$6.6K	-$70.92	44% 34-43 (77)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Wizardsavg 46¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$31	30% 29-67 (96)
HI hi774cCTR	Wizardsavg 46¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$24.98	3% 9-250 (259)
VeryLucky888CTR	Wizardsavg 46¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	+$23.88	48% 61-65 (126)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 54.3¢	$990.67	$896.26	+$1.93	49% 388-405 (793)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 54.3¢	$528.64	$521	-$7.64
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 45.7¢	$368.44	$375.26	+$9.58
LI LimousinCTR	Wizardsavg 46.1¢	$709.08	$715.14	+$6.06	24% 90-284 (374)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 46.5¢	$703.13	$700.97	-$7.16	47% 82-92 (174)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 46.5¢	$433.13	$433.47	+$0.34
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 54¢	$270	$267.5	-$7.5
RN1CTR	Wizardsavg 46.5¢	$275.46	$275.87	+$0.41	54% 235-203 (438)
0xheavy888CTR	Wizardsavg 46¢	$115	$116.25	+$1.25	67% 29-14 (43)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 46¢	$62.56	$64.6	+$2.04	4% 5-123 (128)
FO forecastication4<$100	Pistonsavg 54¢	$65.34	$63.52	-$1.81	5% 4-79 (83)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 48¢	$40.48	$40.06	-$0.42	45% 38-47 (85)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 47¢	$33.57	$33.21	-$0.36	25% 88-264 (352)
PA Pan9X<$100	Pistonsavg 54.3¢	$40.75	$33.08	-$1.43	48% 174-190 (364)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 46¢	$15.18	$15.67	+$0.5	0% 0-48 (48)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 46¢	$9.3	$9.6	+$0.3	26% 89-254 (343)

TMingchanCTR

Wizards

Invested

$9,400

Value

$9.3K

PnL

-$100

Record

—

2-15 (17)

nigiri99

Pistons

Invested

$9,287.46

Value

$9.2K

PnL

-$85.99

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

Siddhartha1CTR

Wizards

Invested

$6,666.66

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$70.92

Record

44%

34-43 (77)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Wizards

Invested

$2,851.57

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$31

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

hi774cCTR

Wizards

Invested

$2,297.84

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$24.98

Record

9-250 (259)

VeryLucky888CTR

Wizards

Invested

$1,856.4

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$23.88

Record

48%

61-65 (126)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$990.67

Value

$896.26

PnL

+$1.93

Record

49%

388-405 (793)

Both legs:

Pistons$528.6454.3¢-$7.64

Wizards$368.4445.7¢+$9.58

LimousinCTR

Wizards

Invested

$709.08

Value

$715.14

PnL

+$6.06

Record

24%

90-284 (374)

Anon455ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$703.13

Value

$700.97

PnL

-$7.16

Record

47%

82-92 (174)

Both legs:

Wizards$433.1346.5¢+$0.34

Pistons$27054¢-$7.5

RN1CTR

Wizards

Invested

$275.46

Value

$275.87

PnL

+$0.41

Record

54%

235-203 (438)

0xheavy888CTR

Wizards

Invested

$115

Value

$116.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

67%

29-14 (43)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$62.56

Value

$64.6

PnL

+$2.04

Record

5-123 (128)

forecastication4<$100

Pistons

Invested

$65.34

Value

$63.52

PnL

-$1.81

Record

4-79 (83)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$40.48

Value

$40.06

PnL

-$0.42

Record

45%

38-47 (85)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$33.57

Value

$33.21

PnL

-$0.36

Record

25%

88-264 (352)

Pan9X<$100

Pistons

Invested

$40.75

Value

$33.08

PnL

-$1.43

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

OddstormCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$15.18

Value

$15.67

PnL

+$0.5

Record

0-48 (48)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.3

Record

26%

89-254 (343)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

13 of 16 top traders (81%)Underdog side (market favors Pistons 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWizards 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Wizards 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.