Spread: Pistons (-12.5)
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (38%) · Wizards at 62¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Wizards
8
Wizards 38%
$11.7K
$34.55
60¢ → 61.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidWizards at 62%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO ropetard | Wizardsavg 60¢ | $7.5K | $7.6K | +$192.99 | — 3-7 (10) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Pistonsavg 40¢ | $4.6K | $1.8K | -$68.74 | 30% 29-67 (96) |
HI hi774cCTR | Pistonsavg 40¢ | $3.3K | $1.3K | -$48.75 | 3% 9-250 (259) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Pistonsavg 40¢ | $2.0K | $770 | -$30 | 48% 61-65 (126) |
AN Anon455CTR | Pistonsavg 40¢ | $200 | $192.5 | -$7.5 | 47% 82-92 (174) |
 RN1CTR | Pistonsavg 40¢ | $250 | $96.25 | -$3.75 | 54% 235-203 (438) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Wizardsavg 61¢ | $12.51 | $12.62 | +$0.1 | 49% 388-405 (793) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Wizardsavg 58¢ | $50 | $10 | +$0.2 | 48% 174-190 (364) |
Invested
$7,478
Value
$7.6K
PnL
+$192.99
Record
—
3-7 (10)
Invested
$4,582.5
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$68.74
Record
30%
29-67 (96)
Invested
$3,250
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$48.75
Record
3%
9-250 (259)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$2,000
Value
$770
PnL
-$30
Record
48%
61-65 (126)
Invested
$200
Value
$192.5
PnL
-$7.5
Record
47%
82-92 (174)
RN1CTRInvested
$250
Value
$96.25
PnL
-$3.75
Record
54%
235-203 (438)
Invested
$12.51
Value
$12.62
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
388-405 (793)
Invested
$50
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.2
Record
48%
174-190 (364)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.