Spread: Pistons (-11.5)
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (17%) · Wizards at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Wizards
6
Wizards 17%
$2.2K
$12.83
Research grade
AvoidWizards at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Wizardsavg 54.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$18.08 | — |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Pistonsavg 45¢ | $227.02 | $227.06 | +$0.04 | — |
 RN1CTR | Pistonsavg 45.4¢ | $198.92 | $194.85 | -$4.07 | — |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Pistonsavg 46¢ | $24.84 | $24.03 | -$0.81 | — |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Pistonsavg 45.7¢ | $37 | $16.47 | -$0.43 | — |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Pistonsavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.23 | +$0.02 | — |
nigiri99Invested
$1,709.63
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$18.08
Record
—
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$227.02
Value
$227.06
PnL
+$0.04
Record
—
RN1CTRInvested
$198.92
Value
$194.85
PnL
-$4.07
Record
—
Invested
$24.84
Value
$24.03
PnL
-$0.81
Record
—
Invested
$37
Value
$16.47
PnL
-$0.43
Record
—
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.23
PnL
+$0.02
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.